A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
